The Technology Leader Index

investmenttool.com technology journal

Our Technology Leader's Index took a big step toward break even last week. Spurred by more good news in the technology sector, it had a one day 3% leap, driven by Oracle. But will it break into the black?

This index came into existence in March of 2001. The purpose was to test the analysts who were almost unanimously predicting that the high technology slowdown was over. I wasn't so sure, but wanted an objective measure.

On its first day the index took a hit of 6.8% on March 12, 2001. That was not the end of the story. It fought its way into the black, peaking at 1005.93 on March 27. It then took another massive hit the very next day an 8% hit down to 925.28. That hurt.

The true measure of an the problem was would the index hit 900 or 1,100 first. If it hit 900 first then clearly the majority of analysts saying that technology hat hit bottom were wrong.

By April 2, the answer was given. A close of 889.33 was turned in and even after a 10.3% jump on April 5, it was still below the 900 level.

Still, Alan Greenspan and the optimists brought the index into the black again in April. From April 18 through June 14 it looked like technology had come back, solidly in the black.

Once again many analysts said that technology had shown it was going to recover. Not so. After fighting back and forth red and black it went negative for good on July 19.

Ossama bin Laden and his merry terrorists dented the index bringing it to an all time low of 699.66 on October 1.  The road back has been hard, but last week good news for Oracle added 30 points to the index.

If the recovery in technology is really a long-term move, then soon we will see long-term increases. Still, a jump of over 40% from the low is a good place to be.

For the year 3.22% in less than two weeks isn't bad either.

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Shmuel Protter
investmenttool.com

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