The Week ahead

Limits

The markets seemed to hit some limits on Friday. All the news of the week was excellent, on the face of it one might have expected the market to soar. It did not.

One of the reasons it did not soar was because many large players are still on vacation. Further, there seem to be some limits beyond which the market doesn't seem to want to travel. The market did close over 4000 on Friday but this was down from Thursday and represented a loss of most early gains.

But this column is about next week.

The economic calendar has lots of events on it but few that can truly shake the market. Wednesday's leading economic indicators could cause short term trouble. The market is convinced that there will be no rate increase until after this November's election.

Barring emergency, I agree. This puts a bit of uncertainty into the market. People will look at economic reports and wonder what the impact will be on a decision in November. Because November is far away a lot of people will try and read Alan Greenspan's mind.

Mr. Greenspan has been very quiet in the time period between the conventions and general elections. This is his forth election this fall as chairman. When Greenspan is silent, others try to speak for him. Don't listen. If he has anything important to say, he'll say it. Don't expect commentary on the various plans of the Presidential candidates.

The week ahead for the market should not have many bumps. The NASDAQ is at the high end of the trading range I predicted and I would not be surprised by a few down days next week.

This should not matter to the long term investor.

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Shmuel Protter
investmenttool.com